Little India: Ready for your transformation?

For well over a hundred years or so, we all know that large North American cities, whether it's New York, Toronto, Montreal or Miami have been built on immigration.  The result: Culturally distinct "ethnic enclaves" that have grown from a common immigrant base. You could probably find a Little Italy or Chinatown in almost every large city on the continent. Even the gay villages of many urban centres can be considered an ethnic enclave of sorts. They add their own character to a given neighbourhood and contribute to the appeal and cultural diversity of a city as a whole. 

The funny thing is that this kind of city neighourhood is changing, and has been changing for awhile. There are a lot more non-Italians in Toronto's Little Italy than Italians, and a lot more Italians outside of the city in Woodbridge.  New immigrants are not necessarily heading to the city any more, and as a result, the population of a given ethnic enclave is becoming a lot more complicated. 

Take Little India in Toronto, some times called Gerrard India Bazaar. South Asian business still dominate here down Gerrard street, but a change is under way. In the 70s, it became a destination for new arrivals from South Asia, and a distinct part of Toronto was born. Businesses down Gerrard Street between Coxwell and Greenwood were almost all South Asian owned. Many Indian-Canadians (and other Canadians) would travel to this destination, a distinct part of the city to indulge in South Asian culture.  But today South Asian newcomers are heading out of the city in much larger numbers to Brampton, Mississauga and Vaughan. And as a result, Gerrard India Bazaar is  having trouble competing with their much larger and fresher suburban counter-parts. 

So, what does this mean for this location? It means that places like Little India are going to change. The neighbourhood will not be able to support  a commercial strip that has exclusive South Asian businesses.  I imagine it will keep some of the cultural flare of South Asia- a destination for great food, and products from India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and even Afghanistan, but there will be other businesses that reflect the  newer population buying homes in this neighbourhood, mostly made up on non South Asians. As prices become too high in Leslieville and the Beach, there will be more pressure for more buyers to buy in this less expensive area and alter the local South Asian population. I imagine this commercial strip will begin to an have an influx on new businesses that will mix with the stronger South Asian businesses that survive.  Already I've seen the obligatory independent coffee shop emerge right on Gerrard Street, just west of Coxwell - a good sign of a more multi-faceted neighbourhood to come. Still, there's no guarantees, and there could even be a period of decline where some of the businesses close down and the Business Improvement Association in the neighbourhood  must encourage other businesses to come in. I, however, think this strip could become some thing very interesting. 

 How long this will take is any ones guess but the potential is here for Little India to become like Greektown on the Danforth where Greek businesses mix with organic super markets, excellent bakeries and sushi joints run by Koreans. 

Lansdowne and Bloor revisited

You know, I went to a nice little restaurant, last night, called Zocalo. Less than year old. It was set up on Bloor Street near Lansdowne and Bloor, an intersection famous for it's low-end strip joints and seediness. Despite the neighbourhood, the place was full. Great food at a very reasonable price. Happy customers that kinda felt like they just discovered a well kept culinary secret.  I think there's some thing to be said about being a pioneer in an emerging neigbhourhood like Lansdowne and Bloor. But what does a successful business have to do with residential property demand, you ask? Well, a healthy commercial strip leads to a strong/cool/in demand community, then, eventually,  it becomes a destination that every one wants to travel to, a place too expensive to buy unless you bought early or you have money.  If you're looking for a home close to transit that I believe will have some of the best appreciation over then next 5 to 10 years, then consider this neighbourhood, whether you call  it the Junction Triangle, Bloordale Village or just Bloor and Lansdowne, the seeds have been planted, and good things are gonna happen  here. It won't happen overnight, but at some point the character of this corner is gonna change.

Pretty but shallow?

Another performance map came out today about Toronto's real estate market in the past year. I cannot resist these things and will spend a good chunk of time staring at each neighbourhood and wondering why some (and in fact most) have increased in price and a few have kinda bombed. I certainly believe that some neighbourhoods and micromarkets have a better chance at appreciation than others. I enjoy how this interactive map gives you the stats in each neighbourhoods, though I have to say that these neighbourhoods do some times contain vastly different kinds of housing.

On the downside, this kind of map can come off as a little too simplistic. For example, according to the map, Liberty Village properties have actually dropped in price from 2010 to 2011.  It suggests that the prices of condos (which is most of Liberty Village) have fallen in price. I feel that the prices in this area with existing condos, particularly a number of conversion projects, have increased in value. So, it's not so much that properties have fallen in value, but that newer, smaller condos have come to market at a lower price point bringing the average down. Kinda hard to get across in an interactive map.

So, have fun with the map, but don't take it too seriously. http://bit.ly/ozFwar

Selling a Condo? Timing is every thing

Earlier this year, I helped a buyer purchase in a pretty amazing loft conversion at a reasonable price on the subway line. We were not the only ones who thought it was amazing though. There were two offers on the property. The funny thing:  a year earlier, during a time when the housing and condo market was pretty strong, few were buying the condos in this particular building. Why, you ask? Timing.

Once new condos are registered, there are usually a flood of condos that come to market for a particular project. Most developers will not let buyers sell their condos until the building is registered, though assignments can happen before this date. Often, a number of investors, particularly in large condo developments, want to get rid of their condo as soon as they can so they don't have to pay a mortgage and condo fees, especially when they have no intention of living in their unit. Unfortunately, when all the condos come up for sale at the same time, there is too much competition for a given product and condo remain unsold or sells for less. 

Flash forward a year or two and glut of condo sales on a new, healthy development usually passes. 

I would say the best time to sell a condo is about 5 years after you buy it, especially in an established or emerging Toronto neighbourhood. At this time, your condo hopefully has become more in demand, and there are fewer number of units coming to market. The design of the condo has not become too out of date and condo fees have not started to increase to cover aging heating systems and infrastructure of a given building. 

You may not be able to time the market, but you could have a better shot of timing the sale of your condo. 

Buying Under 300K

I received a call the other day from a Toronto magazine researcher who was trying to figure out where the next up and coming neighbourhood is going to be for 2011 and 2012. She asked me if a couple had a $300 000 limit, could they buy a decent but humble house in one of the latest emerging neighbourhoods in this city.  The key word to focus on here is "emerging" because I think you can buy a house for that price in a neighbourhood that won't likely improve much. 

It's a tough one. She wasn't asking me about emerging neighbourhoods, but about pre-emerging neighbourhoods.  I told her that Carlton Village in the northwest part of the city comes close. It has some promise though a long ways to go. I'm not sure you can get a home under 300K, but the neighbourhoods around this area are improving. So, it makes sense that this one will too. How fast is any one's guess. The homes are still not as renovated but they're decent stock - with the right renos. There's not groovy coffee shops nearby or yoga studios to visit yet.  You'll have to travel a little for that, but as far as this city goes, it's a good place to get in.

Outside of the old city limits of Toronto, you can certainly find a house for under 300K, even in Etobicoke and Scarborough - though be very selective buying here.

The truth is, if your budget is under 300K and you want to live in the city, buy a condo.  Yes, condo fees can be pricey, but it's a good place to start for your first home. Same rules apply here. Buy in an emerging neighbourhood or even an established one. But also buy is a smaller development, like a townhouse or some thing that is unique. If you live in a 40 story condo, there are probably 3 or 4 condos for sale at the same time when it comes time to sell. So, you'll always have competition. Older condos are good if you want a lot of space, but they do start to fall apart after awhile, sending maintenance fees up. They also don't sell as well if they look dated. Best to get in early on a newer development, then sell it in 5 to 10 years before it becomes too dated. Then go buy your awesome house with the money you hopefully make!

Exodus to the suburbs?

Toronto Life just came out with a feature story with the title "Exodus to the Burbs" on the front cover. As I read this article, I was left scratching my head. It seems that Toronto Life has interviewed a few people who have moved from the city to the burbs, and then determined that this somehow constitutes an "exodus," like some great migration of Biblical proportions.

In fact, what keeps prices high in the city is the fact that people want to live here, and actually come here. If there was an exodus, prices would be much lower.

Toronto Life does bring up a few things that the burbs do offer - more space, less rat racey and often a quieter environment.   The feature story, however, is so romantic about life outside of the city, it's verging on fiction. They describe this sense of community that exists in the smaller towns and suburbs completely ignoring the very strong sense of community that does exist in the city. In fact, I do know my neighbours, and my neighbourhood functions very much like a small town with it's local butcher, baker, plus all the cool stuff that only cities have - your pick of indie coffeeshops, good restaurants, and a festival for what feels like every weekend in the summer.

One thing Toronto Life and I do agree on. Once you leave the city, it's hard to get back if you want to buy any property.

For those of you who think Toronto home prices are too all, you should take a look at this Vancouver real estate game: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldsg2s1mE0Y

Sure Toronto is pricey, but for a city of its size and what it has to offer, I still think we are considerably well priced.