Something odd started happening in
Toronto a few years ago. The condo market, and the market for houses divorced,
and decided to go their own ways. It was an amicable split, but I'm not sure
anyone would have guessed that the two styles of properties would not be together any longer.
Just before the breakup, the condo
market levelled off, even dipped in price in a few places, whereas the houses
have increased substantially in price each year. Where there has been a steady
stream of new condos coming to market, there is a growing shortage of houses to
be bought. Many buyers have been putting up their mitts for bidding
wars in Toronto neighbourhoods where you'll find increased competition in the
housing sector. With condos, there is
often a little room for negotiation. They really are two different markets
functioning in the same city. Weird, I know.
Both are a product of intensification
policies that were put into place 10 years ago. The idea was to keep a portion
of the GTA green. Essentially, we are no longer allowed to develop on the green
belt and expand out to sprawl and unwisely gobble up all our farming land and
natural surroundings. And really, who couldn't get behind that? So, developers
were encouraged to build higher instead of outward.
Because of this policy, there has been a
lot of condos built in the last ten years. Visually speaking, Toronto has changed dramatically. There have been
very few houses or even low rise condos and town homes that have been built.
And now, builders cannot keep up with the demand for lowrise housing acccording
to the president of Realnet, George Carras.
Though there has been mounting pressure
for the government to change its policy to make low rise housing more cost
effective to build, the chances are, in my opinion, things will not change
much. Even if they allow builders to build on the greenbelt, there is still a
demand to live in the city. This is a trend all over the Western world, not
just here in Toronto.
But what does the divorce of the housing
and condo market mean? Well, it means
Toronto will be a different place in the future. So, I'm going to make some
thought-out predictions of Toronto's market in 20 years. Of course, no one can
anticipate the twists and turns of a housing market based on the economy of the
world or the demographic shifts to come. I'm certainly no Nostradamus.
Still, I can make a few educated
guesses, based on intensification policies and my hunches as full-time real
estate agent with a love of how real estate works in this city. And here's are
my thoughts:
1. Houses prices in the green belt will
continue to soar. No surprise here. Lowrise homes will become a rare and
valuable commodity. It will be very much like the current state of real estate
in Vancouver where the average house cost $700,000 more than a condo. It means
that houses will be a strong investment. There are fewer of them, and with a
growing city, they will only be in greater demand for the years to come. It
doesn't necessarily mean that condos will tank in comparison, but some of them
will always be a starting point for entry level first-time buyers and up.
2. Transit will finally grow. That's
right, I'm optimistic about transit! Currently, transit is a disaster in this
city, and everyone knows it. Toronto has been dragging its heels for too long,
and now everyone is waking up to this reality. It will become the number one
issue of this city. Though there's not much money for it, the Relief Subway
Line will be built along with the Eglintion subway/light rail and the
Scarborough subway. From a real estate point of view, it is often wise to invest near
these new transit lines.
3. Snazzier Condos. Because land in the
city will be harder to find for builders of the future, condo projects will be
more daring with their designs for the precious land that is left. Some recent condo projects have had a lot more
thought and design put into them than 20 years ago. That will continue. Greener
buildings, more unique construction and a better fit for a given neighbourhood. Let's just hope the units don't shrink any
smaller than they already are!
4. Bungalows will be an endangered
species. No builder in his or her right mind would build a bungalow now in
Toronto. Lots with bungalows will be bought up for their size, and builders may
just build huge houses or if the neighbourhood allows it, they will build three
town homes where one bungalow once stood. And even if you are not ready to
knock down your bungalow, you may consider a bump up where you add an extra
floor. It's happening all over the city right now from Alderwood in the west,
to the Danforth Village in the east. That trend will keep on going. So long
sweet bungalow!
5. Backlane houses. Right now this city
does not allow for backlane houses. Other cities like Vancouver and many U.S.
cities certainly do. Because there will be such a demand for houses, I suspect
the bylaws will loosen up to allow for backlane houses. That could be wishful
thinking on my part, but you never know.
Some of these predictions may be obvious to some or fanciful to others, but
consider what has changed in this city in 20 years. I'm sure very few future
real estate thinkers of 20 years ago would have predicted that prices of houses
would climb so high, They would likely not have guessed that our skyline would
be completely transformed or certain neighbourhoods would rise from their
derelict conditions to be centres of trendiness and community. I may not nail
all my predictions, but I'm pretty sure the Toronto of 20 years from now will
be a very different place.